CITATION INTEGRITY

When an AI cites a paper, does the paper exist?

—— Models flag the retractions they memorized and miss the ones newer than their training data. This board resolves every citation against the real registries. The headline numbers are lookups, not a model grading a model.

the retraction gap: 82% of pre-cutoff retractions flagged by the models · 0% of post-cutoff onesrun 2026-07-03 · 12 models · 42 questionsfabricated-citation rate 0% to 38%scorer sourcecheck · no LLM in the headline path · beta: presence axis in validation

THE FINDING

Models flag the retractions they learned, and miss the ones they cannot know

The same models were asked about famous old retractions and about prominent papers retracted after their training cutoff. On the old ones they usually cited the paper and noted it was retracted. On the recent ones they cited it as solid evidence with no idea, because the withdrawal is newer than their training data. sourcecheck flagged both, and six of the post-cutoff misses came from the top-tier models.

Easy famous citations
5%
fabricated DOIs, on well-trodden classics
Recent 2025 findings
10%
fabricated DOIs, where the paper cannot be memorized
Old famous retractions
82%
flagged by the model itself (61 of 74). It learned these.
Retracted after cutoff
0%
flagged by the model (0 of 9). It cannot know these; sourcecheck caught all of them.
#SystemFabricated citationsCitedDeclinedRealRetracted
1Gemini 3.1 Pro
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
0%
95% CI 0–10%
353296
2Claude Fable 5
claude-fable-5
0%
95% CI 0–28%
10182
3Claude Opus 4.8
claude-opus-4-8
2%
95% CI 0–12%
4373210
4Claude Sonnet 5
claude-sonnet-5
2%
95% CI 0–12%
4213110
5Gemini 3 Flash
gemini-3-flash-preview
3%
95% CI 1–14%
360269
6GPT-5.5
gpt-5.5
5%
95% CI 1–15%
4423210
7GPT-5.4
gpt-5.4
9%
95% CI 3–20%
4753310
8Gemini 2.5 Pro
gemini-2.5-pro
14%
95% CI 7–28%
423279
9GPT-5.4-mini
gpt-5.4-mini
18%
95% CI 9–32%
409276
10Gemini 2.5 Flash
gemini-2.5-flash
18%
95% CI 9–33%
380256
11Claude Haiku 4.5
claude-haiku-4-5-20251001
26%
95% CI 14–42%
352215
12GPT-4o-mini
gpt-4o-mini
38%
95% CI 24–54%
371230
·GPT-4o-mini (no guardrail)
ablation: same weak model, no anti-fabrication instruction
43%400221

Fabricated-citation rate: of the citations a model asserted, the share whose DOI resolves to no real work. It is a pure registry lookup, no model judges it. Models may decline to cite, which is honest and never penalized, so coverage is shown alongside. Retracted counts are papers that resolved but have been withdrawn.

THE THREE CHECKS

Existence, validity, presence. Lookups, not judgment.

Every model gets the same questions and a protocol that lets it decline a citation. Each citation it does give is resolved by sourcecheck, an open-source source-integrity gate, against OpenAlex and Crossref. Does the DOI resolve to a real work? A DOI that resolves to nothing is a fabrication, and resolution is precision-first, so there's no fuzzy fallback to a paper that merely looks similar. Has the work been retracted? Checked against OpenAlex's retraction flag and Crossref's retraction notices, sourced from Retraction Watch. Both are lookups.

No language model grades anything in the headline path, and that's deliberate. For these two checks a language model is the worst possible judge: it's the thing being checked. It hallucinates DOIs, and it can't know a retraction that happened after its training cutoff. A registry can. The presence check, whether the claim is actually in the resolved source, is the one axis that shades into judgment, so it ships as an experimental secondary and never enters the headline.

THE RETRACTION WALL

Real papers, retracted, cited anyway

These resolved to real papers that have since been retracted for data fraud or error. Models cited them, often with no note that they were withdrawn, because the retraction is newer than the training data. Even models that fabricated nothing did this. sourcecheck flagged every one. That gap, the model cites it and the registry knows it's dead, is the whole reason the library exists.

Room-temperature superconductivity in a carbonaceous sulfur hydride
cited by 11 models, 2 without noting the retraction
10.1038/s41586-020-2801-z
Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of
Stimulus-triggered fate conversion of somatic cells into pluripotency
cited by 10 models
10.1038/nature12968
Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease with a Mediterranean Diet
cited by 9 models, 2 without noting the retraction
10.1056/nejmoa1200303
A specific amyloid-β protein assembly in the brain impairs memory
cited by 8 models, 4 without noting the retraction
10.1038/nature04533
Clinical transplantation of a tissue-engineered airway
cited by 8 models, 5 without noting the retraction
10.1016/s0140-6736(08)61598-6
Genomic signatures to guide the use of chemotherapeutics
cited by 6 models
10.1038/nm1491
Avacopan for the Treatment of ANCA-Associated Vasculitis
cited by 6 models, 6 without noting the retraction
10.1056/nejmoa2023386

HONEST SCOPE

Sourced, not true

sourcecheck checks whether a claim is sourced, not whether it's true. A real, non-retracted paper can still be cited for something it never said. The library verifies the citation exists, that it hasn't been retracted, and (experimentally) that the claim is present in it, and it doesn't adjudicate truth. That scope is the design: these are exactly the checks a language model can't make for itself.

On fairness: fabrication rate is the ranking, but retraction is a safety showcase, not a pure penalty. Asking which study reported the Surgisphere hydroxychloroquine result requires naming a retracted paper to answer correctly, so citing it isn't itself a failure. The value is that sourcecheck surfaces the retraction the model omitted. One politically charged vaccine-safety retraction is deliberately excluded from the question bank and every example; retraction coverage comes from data-fraud and error cases only. Scorer validation for the experimental presence axis is in progress, so the board wears a beta label until it ships.

PRIOR WORK

What's measured elsewhere, and what this adds

Fabrication rates at scale are well covered: GhostCite verified 375,440 citations across 13 models, and a Clemson-led cross-model audit ran registry checks over ten models. On retractions, Thelwall tested three open-weight models against 161 high-profile retracted articles (over 80% claimed the paper wasn't retracted), and his follow-up generated 6,510 ChatGPT quality reports on retracted or discredited work; not one mentioned a retraction.

What this board adds: the pre/post-training-cutoff split, on frontier commercial models, re-run as new models release, with deterministic registry verification and a per-citation audit trail. A model can't have memorized a retraction that postdates its training data, so the post-cutoff column can't be gamed by memorization. That split is the number to watch here.

IN THE WILD

The same failure mode, shipping in real documents

What this board measures in the lab keeps landing in production: Deloitte refunded a government report, EY pulled one, KPMG had 40 of 45 citations exposed, South Africa withdrew a draft national policy, and courts across 41 countries have put over 1,700 cases of AI-hallucinated material on the record. The incidents board aggregates all of it, searchable, refreshed automatically every week, every entry linking its source document.

mikias.io/citations/incidents →

USE IT

Playground, library, data

Interactive playground: mikias.io/citations/playground.html

Library, open source: github.com/aberaio/sourcecheck

Latest run as JSON: /citations/api/latest.json

I sell no model and no leaderboard access. No vendor can pay to be tested, retested, or removed. Citations are resolved live against public registries; every run publishes its full per-citation audit.